More art supply does not create more demand, but free helps

More seats do not bring more spectators. The only way to get more spectators to venues and museums is: drop the price. This is according to figures from the Central Bureau of Statistics.

While in the first decade of this century the total number of performances on Dutch stages increased, the average number of visitors to those stages decreased sharply. At museums, the number of visitors depends heavily on the price paid for them. Since 1999, visits have increased slightly. The increase is entirely due to museum annual pass holders and visits to free museums. The number of visitors paying the full price for a museum visit has fallen by almost a third since 1999. Unlike the performing arts, the number of museums did not increase dramatically. However, the average number of visitors per museum increased remarkably from 20679 in 1999 to 22297 in 2011.

The figures make it clear that the performing arts have a popularity problem. When choosing a day out, culture lovers prefer to choose a museum over a theatre or concert hall. The fact that museums are increasingly free, or operate with reduced rates, helps this considerably. Next, of the performing arts, theatre is the most intimate stage form. The average number of visitors per performance fell slightly from 157 in 1999 to 139 in 2011. Dramatic is the development of musical theatre. This category, which includes both the fairly consistently producing opera companies and the large commercial musical productions, experienced a peak in audience numbers in 2005, when over 7.5 million people experienced one such performance, an average of 737. By 2011, that average had fallen to 601. A decline that was also mainly caused by an increase in supply, which was not offset by a substantial increase in demand. A typical 'bubble'.

What the situation is now is not yet clear, but hopefully the figures presented by the ministry during the autumn will give more insight into this. We expect some dramatic developments: theatre will attract even fewer visitors, which will not yet be made up for by a drop in supply. Dance will become more popular because of the recent success of programmes like So You Think You Can Dance. The crisis in music theatres will be felt even more strongly, as the musical market has collapsed.

Could the performing arts, like the museum sector, be helped by a drastic price cut? Probably yes. Historical research taught a few years ago that the only determining factor in audience attendance was ticket prices. Type and nature of the offer did little to change that. But never before in history since 1677 has more supply of art per se also led to substantially more demand.

Price was always the deciding factor.