These are the winners of the Swans 2016. Or not.

Three dancers and three dance productions have been nominated for Swans 2016. On Friday 7 October, Daphne Bunskoek and Art Rooijakkers will announce who the winners are during the Nederlandse Dansdagen's Opening Programme 2016 in Maastricht. But you can already draw a few conclusions from the list of nominees.

Because who are the nominees for the Swans?

1. Nomination is already prize

First: the purpose of the Swan is to "honour the achievements of dancers and companies by bringing them to the attention of a wide audience". So says the VSCD, the Association of Theatre and Concert Hall Directors, which awards the prize. In other words, being nominated is already a prize. If you don't win the real prize in the end, then there is no way back. Because you already have extra recognition. Such a list is therefore drawn up to give dancers and dance makers a heart to heart. Conversely, this means that the winner is also known from the list of nominees.

2. The National Ballet's turn

We don't have a crystal ball but a pattern is recognisable. That implies that it is the Dutch National Ballet's turn. Not because director Ted Brandsen can claim it, but because there is a kind of spread of winners over the past few years (see the list at the bottom). And above all, there is an authoritative and all-important role of Russian ballet star Anna Tsygankova, in the ballet Mata Hari. After an earlier nomination for a Swan in 2011, it is definitely time for her to take that award, a sculpture by Toer van Schayk.

3. What does that mean for the other nominees?

Jozefien Debaillie is making a smashing impression at Scapino Ballet Rotterdam. And the company is also celebrating a 70th (!) anniversary next season. The Belgian has not won an award in the Netherlands before. Canadian Sarah Murphy is also praised for her performance in Infant. She already won a Piket Art Prize and an award in Stuttgart. But so it could just be that with the nominations, both dancers are simply and downright praised for their dance performances. And not winning.

4. Timing favours Arnhem

The Lost Room by choreographer Franck Chartier at NDT 1 is a masterful, intoxicating theatrical experience. NDT has not won a Swan for a dance production in recent years but has won twice for best dancer. The dance opera Light by Andrea Leine and Harijono Roebana marks a 25th anniversary of the choreographer duo. It is special. As far as is known, LeineRoebana has not won a Swan before. Then there is Three of Introdans by American choreographer and artistic director of the legendary Alvin Ailey American Dance Theater, Robert Battle. Judging by Introdans' presence in the annals of the Swans, it is time for a Swan for the prestigious Arnhem-based company.

 PS With the prediction in this summer 2016 Swans article, I could of course be finitely wrong. That doesn't matter: the more spontaneity and unexpected twists, the more exciting! Who do you think should win?