The city as we knew it is doomed. Long live rural art?

Disturbing reports, over the past few days, in various media. First there was Patrick van IJzendoorn in De Volkskrant, who noted that life had moved away from the London business district. I saw a few confusedly delighted reactions passing by from friends on my cultural timeline. After all, the article made a clear connection between the closure of museums and theatres and the emptying of the city. 'Finally recognition of the importance of art.'

Understandable, such a reaction, at a time when no amount of help seems enough for the sector already badly affected by cuts and political disinterest. That on the upside it also appears that the cultural sector, including and especially unsubsidised culture, is shrinking 36 per cent thanks to the corona state, must have quickly dissipated the relative joy of a mention in De Volkskrant. So, including the 2012 cuts and poorly executed 2016 and 2020 reparations, culture is now about 50 per cent in the minus. That seems a lot, and yet is also more than you think.

Helicopter

That hospitality and healthcare are badly hit is up to a point. They will bounce back because hospital and food are more important for our survival than a piece of theatre, a piece of music or the joke of a comedian. But is it really? Anyone who sets their gaze a little further into helicopter mode will see something else happening. James Altucher may be one such person. He runs his own comedy club in New York and before that made a name for himself as an entrepreneur in the world of hedge funds. A story of his was shared on social media today, and it reads like an extremely realistic horror scenario, building on Thursday's piece from the Volkskrant.

‘'New York City is dead. Here's why' is called Altucher's piece and the story is painfully clear. Seven factors he sees, a nice round number: business, culture, hospitality, real estate, universities, resilience, opportunity. In short: office workers have started working from home en masse, and employers and employees like it. Office towers are empty, and nobody goes for lunch across the street anymore, or grabs a theatre performance after a long day's work. Broadway will be closed until at least spring 2021, and then the run will run out. Smaller clubs and theatres close for good, followed by catering establishments.

Void

If the run is off long enough, real estate starts to falter. While property prices in New York are starting to fall, they are rising in the smaller, less crowded and crowded cities that were previously second or third choice. That trend is causing people to rush out of their homes in New York to still have enough capital for a new home in the region. More vacancies mean less going out, fewer restaurants and cafes, and ultimately vacancy.

The exodus reduces municipal government revenues, maintenance goes down and the city deteriorates. Students, like office workers, work mostly from home. They do not take up rooms in the city and have no reason to settle there after completing their studies, so rejuvenation also fails to occur. The city is ageing.

The question remains, whether a city like London or New York has the resilience to survive something like the Corona crisis, which is already deeper than any previous one. Altucher sees it bleakly. Those who left are building a new existence, a new business life and a new cultural climate in the smaller, less crowded cities, where there is more room for the one-and-a-half-meter society. So why go back to that crowded, infectious 'big city'?

Broadband

There's just one interesting thing underlying it, and it's not even called 'Corona', but 'bandwidth': since internet speed has made home working and streaming possible, physical presence is less and less important. You can now do your whole life, which used to require the city, from your little house in nature. Corona has made that clear; the measures have only accelerated the process.

The question is whether the trend we now see in global cities like New York and London will also become visible in the Netherlands. Our cities are different, not only in design but also in history, our cultural life, thanks to subsidies, is already somewhat better distributed across the country, although the latest decisions have seriously compromised that trend. Even in Almen, in the Achterhoek, where my little dog comes from, theatre is made at a sufficient level For Hein Janssen to go there. A good acquaintance informs me that in his street in the centre of Utrecht, three houses are for sale. I myself have recently, quite coincidentally, been looking on woningnet for houses outside the city.

Reader's question

Is the city doomed? And does corona have anything to do with that? The crowded trams and buses, the train that isn't really an alternative for many either, and the culture that might eventually start looking towards cheaper, more affordable spaces as well, because they are more exploitable with one-half-metre audiences?

Everything hinges a bit on the course of the pandemic. Will we succeed in building up enough immunity within a short time thanks to a vaccine so that the new normal looks a lot like what we know, or will the virus turn out to be more malignant and - like HIV - become a permanent factor in our half-life? Is Altucher a prophet of doom or visionary?

What do you think?